Woodlawn, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS61 KLWX 300843
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build back into the area today. An area
of low pressure and cold front are set to cross the region Friday.
Widespread precipitation is expected to accompany this storm system,
mainly in the form of rain. High pressure will return for the
weekend before another front approaches from the west early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure had positioned itself almost directly overhead early
this morning. Other than a few stratocumulus clouds around the north
edge of the high in the wake of a dissipating front, it was clear.

After starting the morning in the 20s to lower 30s, temperatures
will rise into the 40s and 50s today. Mid and high level clouds will
increase steadily later today ahead of a storm system approaching
from the west.

As low pressure lifts from near Kansas City MO to near the IL/MO/IA
intersection tonight, a warm front will develop to the south. An
overrunning setup will result in rain overspreading the area
beginning late this evening, expanding east/northeast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will quickly move east across the Midwest and lower
Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic Friday. Its parent upper
trough will devolve into an open wave as it runs into high pressure
departing into the Atlantic. Without a CAD signature, warm air
should easily overtake the region resulting in plain rain. Guidance
is gradually coming into better agreement on the axis of steadiest
rainfall, generally between I-66 and I-64, though with some variance
noted among individual ensemble members.

Some higher resolution guidance hints at brief, localized gusty
winds as the system`s warm front crosses the area Friday. This
feature is most prominent in the 00z HRRR, but the UKMET had a
similar "ribbon" of gusty winds (albeit weaker and further south).

Rain will move out of the region as the low moves offshore Friday
night. Thereafter, strong high pressure will build over New England
which should result in a mainly clear first half of the weekend with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A nearly zonal jet stream will spread across the northern half of
the CONUS from Sunday through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure
will be centered near New England Sunday as low pressure approaches
the upper Great Lakes. A cold air damming signature is present as
warm advection overruns the shallow cooler airmass. While no
precipitation is forecast at this time, there will likely be an
increase in cloud cover with high temperatures staying in the 40s.

The high will move offshore Monday while the low strengthens toward
Quebec. This will likely allow the warm front to lift north, leading
to well above normal temperatures. The trailing cold front will drop
south into the area by late Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected as the forcing remains to the north. The front will likely
stall south of the area Tuesday. While temperatures will be lower
than Monday, they will likely still be above normal.

The next wave will approach toward the middle of the week, and with
the lingering boundary and southern shift of the jet, will have a
higher chance of producing precipitation. The fastest solutions
arriving Wednesday morning could result in some precipitation type
issues, but the greater consensus currently holds precipitation
until Wednesday night or Thursday, when temperatures will be a
little warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through early this evening, though mid
and high level clouds will increase. Winds will become S/SW after 14-
16z with a few gusts around 15 kts possible. Prior to this wind
shift, light winds with a somewhat erratic direction can be expected.

Sub-VFR CIGs are expected to develop overnight as a warm front
approaches from the south, but the onset of lower CIGs could be
delayed by antecedent dry air. Rain looks to overspread the region
from SW to NE between 03-06z. The main push of rain will likely exit
between 21-00z Friday afternoon/evening, but with additional shower
activity possible as the system`s cold front moves through.

LLWS is expected after about 03z tonight, possibly lingering as late
as 18z Friday depending on the evolution of surface winds and
whether or not mixing takes place as a warm front lifts through.
Some guidance (notably the 00z HRRR) has a localized ribbon of
briefly higher wind gusts as the warm front lifts through Friday.

VFR conditions look to return late Friday night and persist through
Saturday as winds shift around to the northwest after the low
passes.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday as a warm front lifts toward
the area. VFR conditions should return Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light NW/variable winds this morning will become S/SW by about
midday. Channeling affects could lead to a period of SCA gusts out
of the south late this afternoon through this evening over the main
channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Warming air above cold water will
likely limit mixing Friday, and that draws into question the extent
of gusts that are able to mix to the surface. Still, at least
occasional SCA level gusts are possible. Rain will move in overnight
Thursday night, then move out Friday evening lowering visibility at
times. Dry weather is then forecast late Friday night into Saturday
as winds turn NW in the wake of the storm system, with another
period of SCA level gusts possible before high pressure builds and
winds become lighter by Saturday evening.

Onshore flow on Sunday will eventually become southwesterly by
Monday as a warm front lifts through the area. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed for portions of this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     MDZ001.
VA...None.
WV...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     WVZ501.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ531>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/DHOF